NESTED SCENARIOS

¶ 1 Leave a comment on paragraph 1 0 At a fine grain, a scenario would be as a video simulation of every human, interacting with other humans, things, and sems (texts, graphics). To forecast even examples of such fine grained scenarios would depend on the culture, age of the person, and status of conditions – such as war or peace, economic collapse or upswing, good or poor climate, etc. Our future cannot be forecast in detail.

¶ 2 Leave a comment on paragraph 2 0 What I will attempt here is to share sketches of scenarios at different time scales. The first scenario will have a very wide sweep, from 2016 to 2100 in a few basic phases. I will try to create scenarios at different scales for different periods. I just discovered a scenario I had composed and posted in this blog in June 1913. This is a simulated report of a person who has been a member of the Uplift Movement for 2 years, describing what it was like personally. I had completely forgotten writing this, as I knew that I needed to compose such scenarios. I think it is good. It makes it very clear that I need assistance to launch UPLIFT.

¶ 3 Leave a comment on paragraph 3 0 What is important is that our task is to imagine viable scenarios that take us past survival to the start of positive trends and thrival.

¶ 4 Leave a comment on paragraph 4 0  

THE BIG SWEEP OF TIME

LAUNCHING UPLIFT
TO
SOCIETAL METAMORPHOSIS

¶ 5 Leave a comment on paragraph 5 0 Humankind in 2016 is a mess, accelerating dysfunction and tensions. Yet, there is also an exponentially growing knowledge base of very useful information. However, only a very small percent of the global population have access to it or competencies to use it – if they even know about it.

 Phase 1: 

¶ 6 Leave a comment on paragraph 6 0 A small group of persons, using computer/communication systems for OLLO {Organizing-for-Learning=&=Learning-for Organizing}, catalyze a self-sustaining process that organizes at exponential rates more and more of the population into a unique societal/societal system. That this is possible must be explicated later, in terms of current knowledge not yet integrated. I will call this UpMov for Uplift Movement.

Members in UpMov view themselves as learner/educators creating a nu social/societal system for themselves. The rest of humankind is viewed as a societal environment – to be respected – full of both dangers and opportunities. Relationships can exist between UpMov members and others in their societal environment. One by one, others are invited to try out UpMov and are personally supported (many2one) during their orientation. The first task of new members is to invite other new members, and they are supported in this task, which is part of their orientation. This process – a Chain-Growth-Recruitment-Process insures exponential growth. As UpMov grows, it will learn to do better what it does, which will emerge as many variations, each tuned to the culture and conditions of the specific population.

¶ 8 Leave a comment on paragraph 8 0 The primary objective of UpMov is OLLO, as a rapidly growing, more and more competent, and well organizd membership is UpMov’s greatest asset. All else is designed to optimize this objective. The “educational” curricula and processes are experimentally woven from best practices and new innovations in facilitating learning – and will be far more eeree than the best of education in 2016. {eeree = effective, efficient, relevant, enjoyable, elegant}. Members will learn-to-learn and learn-to-learn-to-learn. There will be many domains for learning, and the process will attend to individual differences and cognitive diversity in the growing population. Everyone, including children, will learn to perform needed tasks, without any intention of developing careers, to meet the “laboring” needs of UpMov. This will include tasks enabling UpMov to be more and more off-the-grid and dependent on their societal environment. Yet, quick and total independence is not sought. Green processes will be used, when not a burden to UpMov’s progress; Planetary Environmental Sustainability will come only after the rulers of humankind, and their exploitive systems have been replaced.

¶ 9 Leave a comment on paragraph 9 0 UpMov will be used as a medium to experiment with alternative societal system – being explored by many pioneers in the 21st Century. Nothing is established to be fixed, as the whole of humankind is expected to develop through many phases before it achieves it goal – which will not be a steady state. It is essential that UpMov’s societal systems are adequate to support the OLLO progress. Uplifters view themselves on an LORDD Expedition (Learning, Organizing, Researching, Designing, Developing), where some “luxuries”are to be postponed for the duration. Like on a camping trip or backpacking trip in strange lands. How this will be done will be sensitive to local conditions, especially the attitude towards UpMov by their local societal environments, and their “condition”.

¶ 10 Leave a comment on paragraph 10 0 UpMov will spread from populations most ready to populations that will need to be approached with careful strategies. In general, each new recruit should be oriented when not in contact with others from their prior community. How persons with quality relationships can have them maintained or renewed after joining UpMov is a challenge to be worked out. Migration-in-time is a good metaphor for how a person will shift from living in the societal environment of UpMov to being a functioning member of UpMov. How to work with cultural traditions is a big challenge, but not an obstacle; it will take experimentation to master.

¶ 11 Leave a comment on paragraph 11 0 UpMov members will avoid demanding reform and avoid protesting for reform of its societal environment.

Activists have limited time, attention, and energy. Effort should be prioritized to changing causes, not alleviating symptoms.

¶ 13 Leave a comment on paragraph 13 0 Many who now accept total collapse and possible extinction, and who believe there is nothing to be done, are dedicating their lives to comfort and serve others, in need. This is an instinct, to help others in need. The survival of human tribes depended on it. If a person encounters a situation of immediate need, as human, they should respond.

¶ 14 Leave a comment on paragraph 14 0 What UPLIFT asks of its members is not to devote time and energy to projects to help the many suffering under societal collapse, or indirectly try to force leaders to reform by protest. To expect success at these critical times is mostly naive.

¶ 15 Leave a comment on paragraph 15 0 As UPLIFT calls for continuous monitoring by UpMov of its societal environment, it will encounter times when intervention may be required. These interventions should not be directed to significant transformation of their societal environment (as that is impossible), but only to remove the immediate threats to the UpMov.

¶ 16 Leave a comment on paragraph 16 0 By not pushing for reform, their societal environment has no need to take action against UpMov. Indeed, as UpMov becomes functional for many, it may reduce pressures on the societal environment and reduce its oppression.

¶ 17 Leave a comment on paragraph 17 0 UpMov’s dance with its societal environment will be intricate.  The societal environment should not be viewed as the enemy. Although it is composed of human persons, each is acting morally and properly within their inner-woven wrlds. They are not intentionally evil, although their behaviors may appear so from UpMov’s perspective. Remember, the goal of UPLIFT is to eventually attract those persons to join UpMov.

¶ 18 Leave a comment on paragraph 18 0 UpMov grows until it reaches a critical size, dependent on the status of its societal environment, when it will initiate Phase 2.

Phase 2:

¶ 19 Leave a comment on paragraph 19 0 This phase will somewhat overlap Phase 1, as it will be implemented in different regions and societal systems both experimentally and when best appropriate. Members of UpMov will “infiltrate” into positions of power/influence in sectors of societal systems related to their OPERATIONS. All persons joining UpMov need not leave their positions in their societal environment. For some, it will be a source of money for UpMov – which can market some of it’s production to others not members. This should not become a primary objective of UpMov enterprises.  Managers of operational systems in both public and private institutions will become members of UpMov. Many workers will also continue with their jobs. UpMov will eventually absorb most of the unemployed, who will most likely become full-time in UpMov orgs.

All flows in the societal environment will be mapped and modeled. All basic needs, of all humans and all functional orgs will be assessed.  Alternative transformation schemes for the these flows will be explored. As some operations are phased out, the continuation of others must be insured. No person should suffer because of a loss of income when their jobs are eliminated – and they should be trained for other jobs.

¶ 21 Leave a comment on paragraph 21 0 UPLIFT distinguishes between the human systems (including human relations with their semfields) from the material infrastructure (including factories, transportation, agriculture, residences, energy systems, etc.). The most important aspect of UpMov are its persons and their useful semfields. Their other societal systems are temporary.

¶ 22 Leave a comment on paragraph 22 0 As Phase 2 progresses (and even during Phase 1) parts of the elite of their societal environment will learn of UPLIFT and UpMov.  UpMov should “move” to make its continued existence essential to powerful sectors of their societal environment. Keeping-the-Peace by suppressing violent uprisings may be a card, but this may not be possible in many circumstances. If everyone trained and functioning in some critically key positions all become UpMov members, they may be able to threaten to “strike” if there are efforts to oppress UpMov. At some point some of the elite will fully comprehend the end game if UpMov continues. If the UpMov scenario includes a good future for persons of the ruling elite, they may let it happen. By then, these leaders may have seen the writing on the wall and accepted that their Ponzi scheme was coming to a close.

¶ 23 Leave a comment on paragraph 23 0 Deranged persons and ideologically terrorist groups may be a challenge for a long time; especially if they gain access to WMDs.  UPLIFT will not be smooth, but neither is sliding into the abyss.

¶ 24 Leave a comment on paragraph 24 0 Phase 2 builds up to a moment when the active transition is launched. THIS GREAT DAY will be scheduled and anticipated by everyone, all in UpMov and all person yet in their societal environment who are aware of what is happening. Elements of the elite will attempt to block this. What they would do would be fairly well known to UpMov and measures taken to divert their actions.

Phase 3:

¶ 25 Leave a comment on paragraph 25 0 THIS GREAT DAY

Please read, BELOW,  what I wrote in 2009:
This seven year old manifesto includes info on Phases 1 and 2.

¶ 27 Leave a comment on paragraph 27 0 THIS GREAT DAY
        
        THIS DAY was a great day for all,
        when the train decoupled from the old engine
        and began moving on its own power.
        
        THIS DAY was the turning point
        in the life of Humanity and Gaia.
        
        The engines of high finance & excessive profit,
        power & violence
        no longer had any influence
        on the lives of human multitudes.
        
        There was no collapse on THIS DAY.
        Most people continued doing what
        they would normally have done on this day.

¶ 28 Leave a comment on paragraph 28 0

Energy, water, and other basic essentials continued to be provided as before. Even coal generated energy, although it would eventually be eliminated as a primary energy source.

¶ 29 Leave a comment on paragraph 29 0 Goods moved as usual, with a few exceptions. Stores were open. People shopped. Although these patterns were to change in the future.

¶ 30 Leave a comment on paragraph 30 0 Services were performed. Needed repairs were made. Transportation and communication continued.

¶ 31 Leave a comment on paragraph 31 0 People worked, ate and played. Even though they expected future days to be different, they were willing and able to maintain process to avoid collapse.

¶ 32 Leave a comment on paragraph 32 0  THIS GREAT DAY

Phase 4: 

¶ 33 Leave a comment on paragraph 33 0 SOCIETAL METAMORPHOSIS – yet to compose scenario