1 Leave a comment on paragraph 1 0 The news tonight, 11/01/2018, MSNBC, reported on 5 (or more) critical elections where the polls are “even”, the exact-same percent for each candidate. In one case, the actual polling counts were exactly equal. {Now, 11/10/2018, there are many elections yet undecided because the votes are too close. There are more such “races, nose to nose” than I anticipated. I need to find someone competent in statistics to evaluate my query, presented below?

2 Leave a comment on paragraph 2 0 I have long wondered about the many elections that are very “close”, an equal number voting for the two candidates. This is strange when party memberships are not so similar. However, there are many landslide elections and elections with significant differences between vote totals for competing candidates..

3 Leave a comment on paragraph 3 0 I don’t know the percent of close elections from all elections, and whether close elections fall with approved probability. Yet, I sense/speculate that some elections have so many variables at play, and the voting population so diverse in relative knowledge of the issues, that the close elections are evidence of a random distribution of voters “ignorant” of the “big picture”; each voter having a limited and “narrow picture” of the “election”. In such situations, with large numbers of voters, simple statistics would account for the equal/close votes – the election saying nothing related to their choice of candidate.

4 Leave a comment on paragraph 4 0 It would be an interesting research study of the conditions where this occurs, and where it doesn’t occur. POTUS elections can be landslides (1972 Nixon vs McGovern), and they can be close (2000 Gore vs Bush).

5 Leave a comment on paragraph 5 0 This also may explain Trump’s popularity, approaching 50% for some polls. This is much smaller than the highly overt Trump supporters at his many rallies. Who are these persons? Might some be followers who attend most rallies? Are they paid?

6 Leave a comment on paragraph 6 0 What is the distribution of quality knowledge of the voting population? Might there be many who are attracted to a candidate due to a few (random) traits, some which may even be false?  What are the actual sources of information for each voter?

7 Leave a comment on paragraph 7 0 I speculate that the human population is far more “ignorant and stupid” than we imagine. “Stupid” here refers only to the inability to learn and think ( cognitive competencies); which may be due to the lack of opportunity or suppression (deliberate or accidental) of nurturing settings/environments where such competencies can emerge.

8 Leave a comment on paragraph 8 0 They are this way for many reasons, including the increasing complexity of knowledge systems and the corresponding complexity of a person’s info-processing, learning & analyzing/evaluating, and access to information/training. Intentional suppression of access to competency acquirement is another factor.

9 Leave a comment on paragraph 9 0 Although I have thought on this for decades, this is the first time for me to write about it. I have never read about this speculation about many close votes. What are the factors that split a population into equal halves? Is this becoming a permanent division in the USA, and might it lead to civil war? Might Internet access be a current contributing factor, creating silos?

10 Leave a comment on paragraph 10 0 FEEDBACK DESIRED


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